Performance and explainability of feature selection-boosted tree-based classifiers for COVID-19 detection.

In this paper, we evaluate the performance and analyze the explainability of machine learning models boosted by feature selection in predicting COVID-19-positive cases from self-reported information. In essence, this work describes a methodology to identify COVID-19 infections that considers the large amount of information collected by the University of Maryland Global COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey (UMD-CTIS). More precisely, this methodology performs a feature selection stage based on the recursive feature elimination (RFE) method to reduce the number of input variables without compromising detection accuracy. A tree-based supervised machine learning model is then optimized with the selected features to detect COVID-19-active cases. In contrast to previous approaches that use a limited set of selected symptoms, the proposed approach builds the detection engine considering a broad range of features including self-reported symptoms, local community information, vaccination acceptance, and isolation measures, among others. To implement the methodology, three different supervised classifiers were used: random forests (RF), light gradient boosting (LGB), and extreme gradient boosting (XGB). Based on data collected from the UMD-CTIS, we evaluated the detection performance of the methodology for four countries (Brazil, Canada, Japan, and South Africa) and two periods (2020 and 2021). The proposed approach was assessed in terms of various quality metrics: F1-score, sensitivity, specificity, precision, receiver operating characteristic (ROC), and area under the ROC curve (AUC). This work also shows the normalized daily incidence curves obtained by the proposed approach for the four countries. Finally, we perform an explainability analysis using Shapley values and feature importance to determine the relevance of each feature and the corresponding contribution for each country and each country/year.

Consistent comparison of symptom-based methods for COVID-19 infection detection.

BACKGROUND: During the global pandemic crisis, various detection methods of COVID-19-positive cases based on self-reported information were introduced to provide quick diagnosis tools for effectively planning and managing healthcare resources. These methods typically identify positive cases based on a particular combination of symptoms, and they have been evaluated using different datasets. PURPOSE: This paper presents a comprehensive comparison of various COVID-19 detection methods based on self-reported information using the University of Maryland Global COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey (UMD-CTIS), a large health surveillance platform, which was launched in partnership with Facebook. METHODS: Detection methods were implemented to identify COVID-19-positive cases among UMD-CTIS participants reporting at least one symptom and a recent antigen test result (positive or negative) for six countries and two periods. Multiple detection methods were implemented for three different categories: rule-based approaches, logistic regression techniques, and tree-based machine-learning models. These methods were evaluated using different metrics including F1-score, sensitivity, specificity, and precision. An explainability analysis has also been conducted to compare methods. RESULTS: Fifteen methods were evaluated for six countries and two periods. We identify the best method for each category: rule-based methods (F1-score: 51.48% - 71.11%), logistic regression techniques (F1-score: 39.91% - 71.13%), and tree-based machine learning models (F1-score: 45.07% - 73.72%). According to the explainability analysis, the relevance of the reported symptoms in COVID-19 detection varies between countries and years. However, there are two variables consistently relevant across approaches: stuffy or runny nose, and aches or muscle pain. CONCLUSIONS: Regarding the categories of detection methods, evaluating detection methods using homogeneous data across countries and years provides a solid and consistent comparison. An explainability analysis of a tree-based machine-learning model can assist in identifying infected individuals specifically based on their relevant symptoms. This study is limited by the self-report nature of data, which cannot replace clinical diagnosis.

Using survey data to estimate the impact of the omicron variant on vaccine efficacy against COVID-19 infection.

Symptoms-based detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection is not a substitute for precise diagnostic tests but can provide insight into the likely level of infection in a given population. This study uses symptoms data collected in the Global COVID-19 Trends and Impact Surveys (UMD Global CTIS), and data on variants sequencing from GISAID. This work, conducted in January of 2022 during the emergence of the Omicron variant (subvariant BA.1), aims to improve the quality of infection detection from the available symptoms and to use the resulting estimates of infection levels to assess the changes in vaccine efficacy during a change of dominant variant; from the Delta dominant to the Omicron dominant period. Our approach produced a new symptoms-based classifier, Random Forest, that was compared to a ground-truth subset of cases with known diagnostic test status. This classifier was compared with other competing classifiers and shown to exhibit an increased performance with respect to the ground-truth data. Using the Random Forest classifier, and knowing the vaccination status of the subjects, we then proceeded to analyse the evolution of vaccine efficacy towards infection during different periods, geographies and dominant variants. In South Africa, where the first significant wave of Omicron occurred, a significant reduction of vaccine efficacy is observed from August-September 2021 to December 2021. For instance, the efficacy drops from 0.81 to 0.30 for those vaccinated with 2 doses (of Pfizer/BioNTech), and from 0.51 to 0.09 for those vaccinated with one dose (of Pfizer/BioNTech or Johnson & Johnson). We also extended the study to other countries in which Omicron has been detected, comparing the situation in October 2021 (before Omicron) with that of December 2021. While the reduction measured is smaller than in South Africa, we still found, for instance, an average drop in vaccine efficacy from 0.53 to 0.45 among those vaccinated with two doses. Moreover, we found a significant negative (Pearson) correlation of around - 0.6 between the measured prevalence of Omicron in several countries and the vaccine efficacy in those same countries. This prediction, in January of 2022, of the decreased vaccine efficacy towards Omicron is in line with the subsequent increase of Omicron infections in the first half of 2022.

Estimating the COVID-19 Prevalence in Spain With Indirect Reporting via Open Surveys.

During the initial phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, accurate tracking has proven unfeasible. Initial estimation methods pointed toward case numbers that were much higher than officially reported. In the CoronaSurveys project, we have been addressing this issue using open online surveys with indirect reporting. We compare our estimates with the results of a serology study for Spain, obtaining high correlations (R squared 0.89). In our view, these results strongly support the idea of using open surveys with indirect reporting as a method to broadly sense the progress of a pandemic.

Link community detection using generative model and nonnegative matrix factorization.

Discovery of communities in complex networks is a fundamental data analysis problem with applications in various domains. While most of the existing approaches have focused on discovering communities of nodes, recent studies have shown the advantages and uses of link community discovery in networks. Generative models provide a promising class of techniques for the identification of modular structures in networks, but most generative models mainly focus on the detection of node communities rather than link communities. In this work, we propose a generative model, which is based on the importance of each node when forming links in each community, to describe the structure of link communities. We proceed to fit the model parameters by taking it as an optimization problem, and solve it using nonnegative matrix factorization. Thereafter, in order to automatically determine the number of communities, we extend the above method by introducing a strategy of iterative bipartition. This extended method not only finds the number of communities all by itself, but also obtains high efficiency, and thus it is more suitable to deal with large and unexplored real networks. We test this approach on both synthetic benchmarks and real-world networks including an application on a large biological network, and compare it with two highly related methods. Results demonstrate the superior performance of our approach over competing methods for the detection of link communities.

Trauma hepático en el Hospital Regional Simón Bolívar: 1989 - 1993 / Hepatic injury at Hospital Simón Bolívar

En esta investigación se presentan los datos encontrados acerca del trauma hepático en el Hospital Regional Simón Bolívar en el período comprendido entre Marzo de 1989 y Marzo de 1993. El estudio estuvo dirigido a establecer el manejo inicial del paciente con trauma abdominal en el servicio de urgencias, su posterior valoración quirúrgica, los hallazgos intraoperatorios y las complicaciones posteriores al trauma hepático. La información hallada se correlacionó con la revisión hecha sobre el trauma hepático y el protocolo de manejo. No hay clasificación estandar aceptada universalmente para el trauma hepático y las diferencias reportadas entre unas y otras son insignificantes. Se encontró que la morbilidad y la mortalidad tienen una correlación lineal ya que no solamente es el daño del parénquima hepático del que depende el pronóstico sino también de la magnitud de la intervención quirúrgica, hallazgo de heridas asociadas y complicaciones postoperatorias. Las excepciones son el daño de la vena retrohepática que tiene una mortalidad independiente. De ésto concluímos que el manejo del paciente con trauma hepático debe ser integral para asegurar el buen pronóstico